As the conflict crisis between Russia and Georgia nears what could potentially be a form of (at least temporary) conclusion, There is a large question that has yet to be answered: What was this actually all about?
What was each side hoping to gain from a conflict of this nature?
It would seemingly be folly, and common sense revolts the idea, that the Georgian government is single handedly the aggressor as Russia is attempting to portray. For any nation of Georgia’s size to fight the Russian armed forces in a conventional war is at best inadvisable, at worst, suicide. Georgia knows this. A brief comparison of the relative sizes and state of advancement of the forces in question demonstrates this point. Georgia has 37,000 Full time service personnel plus 100,000 reservists. Russia, by comparison has 1,037,000. In terms of technology, the differences in armour and air power speak for themselves. Georgia’s tank force is entirely composed of T-72’s, a relatively outdated soviet tank. By contrast, Russia has more than ten times the number of tanks than are available to Georgia, and the tanks are much more modern, largely T-90’s. Prior to the conflict, the Georgian air force had seventeen Sukhoi Su-25 Aircraft. Capable fighters, but ageing airframes which were originally designed for a CAS [close air support] role. By contrast Russia has very large numbers (In excess of 1,000) of much more advanced fighter-bombers available, notably the Sukhoi Su-37, Mig-29 and others. (The Su-47 has yet to be developed from the demonstrator stage into widespread deployment).
This establishes that no Georgian commander or president in any state of sanity would order a direct first-strike attack on Russian forces. So why the conflict?
Between money, sex and power, there are few greater motivators for conflict. Some perhaps suggest that at root-cause, these are the only real motivators. I suggest that the latest Georgian conflict is an example of the latter.
It is no secret that NATO is expanding eastwards, country by country, border by border. The alliance can no longer be truly termed the ‘North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’ but more of a fan club of what was the original NATO. It is even less of a secret that Russia is none too keen on this expansion. Georgia has for some time being sounding out the possiblity of joining NATO. It would appear that the latest Russian offensive is not designed to protect Russian citizens in South Ossetia. These people were given free Russian passports to provide Russia with that reason if it ever needed to fall back on it. The reason for this intervention is not to punish Georgia for attempting to leave Russia’s sphere of influence. As the Ukranian gas crisis demonstrated, Russia’s primary sanctions with regard to punishment is economic. The reasoning behind this latest activity is that it will act as a barrier, an obstacle, for possibly over a decade to come. It will block Georgia’s entry to NATO, instead of merely discouraging it. By completely destabilising the region, Russia has ensured that the regional troubles are not merely a matter of conern for NATO, but would require NATO to militarily take Georgia’s side. Russia knows that NATO is not willing to go to war against it, and so will not allow Georgia into the club.
The latest conflict is not about protection of citizens, or about a province. Russia could not care less about these. Russia’s intentions are clear: To set up a long term prevention to Georgia entering NATO, and to maintain its crubling sphere of influence in the world. It is the final lashing out of a humiliated nation, as it tries to regain its lost status as a world superpower.
Posted by davehatton01 